Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
